Rush Poker at Full Tilt and Data-Mining

Well there was a surprise update today at full tilt poker and okay that's nothing new, but this one included a new game called Rush Poker. One thing you can say what full tilt poker and that is they are always thinking about new ways to keep poker players interested and excited about playing.

Rush poker adds an element of speed to single table play of no limit Texas hold'em cash games whereby you are immediately transported to a new table every time you fold your hand. This is done instantly, allowing you to play hundreds of hands per hour. Now this is not turbo speed like you would have seen in tournaments, this is more physically changing the makeup of your table allowing you to engage in as many hands as you're comfortable with. The faster you fold your hand, the faster you get to see your next hand.

The way the software allows you to do this, is by placing you amongst the pool of players who were also waiting for the next time to start. This means you can be put in any position, and be facing any combination of any players that are active in the pool at that moment. Truly an interesting concept here, and full tilt should be commended for their forward thinking, which has really kept them as the leaders in the online poker market at least as far as features go.

The only time I found that I had to wait in this game was when I was in the big blind, and that basically meant that I had to wait for somebody to raise or just check fold to me. Pretty much any other position you can glance at your hand, click full or quick fold, and you're off to another table.

Alright so it's fun, action-packed, and demands your considerable concentration, but what about 3rd party tracking software? I was using Hold'em Indicator on first visit to these tables and used the odds display, but since your table and opponents change every hand, there was no profiling going on whatsoever. In addition, Full Tilt does not allow observers at these tables, so there won't be any easy way to data mine statistics for programs like Poker Tracker, Hold'em Manager or Poker Edge. You are just going to be playing these straight-up on card strength and the betting patterns of that very hand you are in.

So if you eliminate profiling from this game, there will be other rules of engagement in order to stay profitable. Of course Full Tilt Poker is just going to rake in much more well, rake. But if you can focus for a couple of hours you could be seeing as many as 1000 hands. I could see playing tight solid aggressive could be working under the circumstances, but I also noticed a lot of blind stealing going on here. Players already sort of trying to take advantage of the fact that players and the blinds might not even be there and they can tell because they're on auto fold and they're already sitting at another table looking at another hand.

It's going to be interesting to see what games and buy-in levels Full Tilt expands this to and how popular it's going to be with players. Nonetheless, another industry-leading innovation from full tilt poker.


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Top Data Mining Tools

Data mining is important because it means pulling out critical information from vast amounts of data. The key is to find the right tools used for the expressed purposes of examining data from any number of viewpoints and effectively summarize it into a useful data set.

Many of the tools used to organize this data have become computer based and are typically referred to as knowledge discovery tools.

Listed below are the top data mining tools in the industry:

    Insightful Miner - This tool has the best selection of ETL functions of any data mining tool on the market. This allows the merging, appending, sorting and filtering of data.
    SQL Server 2005 Data Mining Add-ins for Office 2007 - These are great add-ins for taking advantage of SQL Server 2005 predictive analytics in Office Excel 2007 and Office Visio 2007. The add-ins Allow you to go through the entire development lifecycle within Excel 2007 by using either a spreadsheet or external data accessible through your SQL Server 2005 Analysis Services instance.
    Rapidminder - Also known as YALE is a pretty comprehensive and arguably world-leading when it comes to an open-source data mining solution. it is widely used from a large number of companies an organizations. Even though it is open-source, this tool, out of the box provides a secure environment and provides enterprise capable support and services so you will not be left out in the cold.

The list is short but ever changing in order to meet the increasing demands of companies to provide useful information from years of data.



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Data Entry Outsourcing

Data entry outsourcing provides a tremendous amount of flexibility in budget because offsite data entry outsourcing services enable organizations to pay for certain services on a per project and as needed basis. The option cuts down costs and need for hiring special personnel and training them, harnessing fresh engineering proficiency, and slashes the expenditure to be made on operations. In general such tasks tend to be repetitive and monotonous yet require a high degree of attention to detail. For these reasons and more, most businesses choose to outsource such tasks to specialists.

The effectiveness of employing freelance staff members at a preferred rate was gaining momentum even among businesses operating on a small scale. Data entry outsourcing of specific tasks to outsiders meant that organizations could make use of the know-how possessed by them, even though the organization did not have offices in those parts of the globe.

Data entry outsourcing projects are growing exponentially, in terms of the revenues involved, people employed, and the amount of data entailed. With the world going digital, the speed and accuracy is greatly enhanced when companies decide to outsource such tasks. The service providers and service buyers can now function almost on a real-time basis, although they may be geographically poles apart. This leads to the leveraging of scale of the economy of the outsourced work and the capacity to deliver astronomically valuable service at reduced, end-customer price.

The size of the database of all businesses is expanding. The strategic or top management is able to project into the future using the data of the past. Data is a managerial tool. As it is difficult to house every procedure under one roof, the importance of data entry outsourcing is in high demand. Much stress can be taken away, and the venture turned profitable, especially if the low-cost, third world countries are targeted.

Data entry outsourcing may typically call for online or offline treatment at the providers' end. It is a lucrative and astute choice to outsource the entering of data because the business going in for it can focus on core processes, leaving the work of entering data to reliable service providers - those who specialize in the field and have the necessary infrastructure. Businesses, which outsource data entry to self owned or third-party service providers, have been found to do financially better than others. This results in their being able to pay their workers higher wages and influence their morale positively.



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What is Data Entry - Which Data Entry Services Are Popular?

Today, data entry business is the fastest growing businesses in the world whether we think so or not but it is fact. This data online entry is dynamic and is in regular changes.

Data form entries can be described as numeric, alpha numeric, text and form entry. Data entries services are very useful in business firms and organizations as there is a huge demand of entry.

Therefore, the outsourcing form entry business is flexible and is require detailed information and accuracy of ease of access. If you will outsource data entry requirements it helps to improve information management system whether you are running a small business or large business company because information is vital asset in this industry.

You can release from the difficulty of all your information processing requirements because of high quality, cost effective services provided by data entry companies which also helps you to focus on other business development processes which are also important.

Specially trained and skilled excel, word entry professional from offshore countries provide you excellent services with significant suggestions. There are several advantages of information entry outsourcing some majors are:

o Lowest Possible Data-Entry Cost
o Accurate and Fast delivery
o Access of specialized service
o Increased client satisfaction
o Savings manpower and training costs
o Focusing energy and workforce on your core business

Some of the most important services provided by outsourcing companies are described below:

Catalogs Entries
Directories Entries
Numeric Information
Textual Information
Data Capture and Data Collection
Image Information
Online Form Information
OCR/ICR Processing

By outsourcing data-entry services you can enjoy the convenience and security of work done by data entries companies. DataEntryOutsourcing is provide complete data online entry services and you can get more information about our data online entry company so visit our website.


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Backtesting & Data Mining

In this article we'll take a look at two related practices that are widely used by traders called Backtesting and Data Mining. These are techniques that are powerful and valuable if we use them correctly, however traders often misuse them. Therefore, we'll also explore two common pitfalls of these techniques, known as the multiple hypothesis problem and overfitting and how to overcome these pitfalls.

Backtesting

Backtesting is just the process of using historical data to test the performance of some trading strategy. Backtesting generally starts with a strategy that we would like to test, for instance buying GBP/USD when it crosses above the 20-day moving average and selling when it crosses below that average. Now we could test that strategy by watching what the market does going forward, but that would take a long time. This is why we use historical data that is already available.

"But wait, wait!" I hear you say. "Couldn't you cheat or at least be biased because you already know what happened in the past?" That's definitely a concern, so a valid backtest will be one in which we aren't familiar with the historical data. We can accomplish this by choosing random time periods or by choosing many different time periods in which to conduct the test.

Now I can hear another group of you saying, "But all that historical data just sitting there waiting to be analyzed is tempting isn't it? Maybe there are profound secrets in that data just waiting for geeks like us to discover it. Would it be so wrong for us to examine that historical data first, to analyze it and see if we can find patterns hidden within it?" This argument is also valid, but it leads us into an area fraught with danger...the world of Data Mining

Data Mining

Data Mining involves searching through data in order to locate patterns and find possible correlations between variables. In the example above involving the 20-day moving average strategy, we just came up with that particular indicator out of the blue, but suppose we had no idea what type of strategy we wanted to test? That's when data mining comes in handy. We could search through our historical data on GBP/USD to see how the price behaved after it crossed many different moving averages. We could check price movements against many other types of indicators as well and see which ones correspond to large price movements.

The subject of data mining can be controversial because as I discussed above it seems a bit like cheating or "looking ahead" in the data. Is data mining a valid scientific technique? On the one hand the scientific method says that we're supposed to make a hypothesis first and then test it against our data, but on the other hand it seems appropriate to do some "exploration" of the data first in order to suggest a hypothesis. So which is right? We can look at the steps in the Scientific Method for a clue to the source of the confusion. The process in general looks like this:

Observation (data) >>> Hypothesis >>> Prediction >>> Experiment (data)

Notice that we can deal with data during both the Observation and Experiment stages. So both views are right. We must use data in order to create a sensible hypothesis, but we also test that hypothesis using data. The trick is simply to make sure that the two sets of data are not the same! We must never test our hypothesis using the same set of data that we used to suggest our hypothesis. In other words, if you use data mining in order to come up with strategy ideas, make sure you use a different set of data to backtest those ideas.

Now we'll turn our attention to the main pitfalls of using data mining and backtesting incorrectly. The general problem is known as "over-optimization" and I prefer to break that problem down into two distinct types. These are the multiple hypothesis problem and overfitting. In a sense they are opposite ways of making the same error. The multiple hypothesis problem involves choosing many simple hypotheses while overfitting involves the creation of one very complex hypothesis.

The Multiple Hypothesis Problem

To see how this problem arises, let's go back to our example where we backtested the 20-day moving average strategy. Let's suppose that we backtest the strategy against ten years of historical market data and lo and behold guess what? The results are not very encouraging. However, being rough and tumble traders as we are, we decide not to give up so easily. What about a ten day moving average? That might work out a little better, so let's backtest it! We run another backtest and we find that the results still aren't stellar, but they're a bit better than the 20-day results. We decide to explore a little and run similar tests with 5-day and 30-day moving averages. Finally it occurs to us that we could actually just test every single moving average up to some point and see how they all perform. So we test the 2-day, 3-day, 4-day, and so on, all the way up to the 50-day moving average.

Now certainly some of these averages will perform poorly and others will perform fairly well, but there will have to be one of them which is the absolute best. For instance we may find that the 32-day moving average turned out to be the best performer during this particular ten year period. Does this mean that there is something special about the 32-day average and that we should be confident that it will perform well in the future? Unfortunately many traders assume this to be the case, and they just stop their analysis at this point, thinking that they've discovered something profound. They have fallen into the "Multiple Hypothesis Problem" pitfall.

The problem is that there is nothing at all unusual or significant about the fact that some average turned out to be the best. After all, we tested almost fifty of them against the same data, so we'd expect to find a few good performers, just by chance. It doesn't mean there's anything special about the particular moving average that "won" in this case. The problem arises because we tested multiple hypotheses until we found one that worked, instead of choosing a single hypothesis and testing it.

Here's a good classic analogy. We could come up with a single hypothesis such as "Scott is great at flipping heads on a coin." From that, we could create a prediction that says, "If the hypothesis is true, Scott will be able to flip 10 heads in a row." Then we can perform a simple experiment to test that hypothesis. If I can flip 10 heads in a row it actually doesn't prove the hypothesis. However if I can't accomplish this feat it definitely disproves the hypothesis. As we do repeated experiments which fail to disprove the hypothesis, then our confidence in its truth grows.

That's the right way to do it. However, what if we had come up with 1,000 hypotheses instead of just the one about me being a good coin flipper? We could make the same hypothesis about 1,000 different people...me, Ed, Cindy, Bill, Sam, etc. Ok, now let's test our multiple hypotheses. We ask all 1000 people to flip a coin. There will probably be about 500 who flip heads. Everyone else can go home. Now we ask those 500 people to flip again, and this time about 250 will flip heads. On the third flip about 125 people flip heads, on the fourth about 63 people are left, and on the fifth flip there are about 32. These 32 people are all pretty amazing aren't they? They've all flipped five heads in a row! If we flip five more times and eliminate half the people each time on average, we will end up with 16, then 8, then 4, then 2 and finally one person left who has flipped ten heads in a row. It's Bill! Bill is a "fantabulous" flipper of coins! Or is he?

Well we really don't know, and that's the point. Bill may have won our contest out of pure chance, or he may very well be the best flipper of heads this side of the Andromeda galaxy. By the same token, we don't know if the 32-day moving average from our example above just performed well in our test by pure chance, or if there is really something special about it. But all we've done so far is to find a hypothesis, namely that the 32-day moving average strategy is profitable (or that Bill is a great coin flipper). We haven't actually tested that hypothesis yet.

So now that we understand that we haven't really discovered anything significant yet about the 32-day moving average or about Bill's ability to flip coins, the natural question to ask is what should we do next? As I mentioned above, many traders never realize that there is a next step required at all. Well, in the case of Bill you'd probably ask, "Aha, but can he flip ten heads in a row again?" In the case of the 32-day moving average, we'd want to test it again, but certainly not against the same data sample that we used to choose that hypothesis. We would choose another ten-year period and see if the strategy worked just as well. We could continue to do this experiment as many times as we wanted until our supply of new ten-year periods ran out. We refer to this as "out of sample testing", and it's the way to avoid this pitfall. There are various methods of such testing, one of which is "cross validation", but we won't get into that much detail here.


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Data Mining - Critical for Businesses to Tap the Unexplored Market

Knowledge discovery in databases (KDD) is an emerging field and is increasingly gaining importance in today's business. The knowledge discovery process, however, is vast, involving understanding of the business and its requirements, data selection, processing, mining and evaluation or interpretation; it does not have any pre-defined set of rules to go about solving a problem. Among the other stages, the data mining process holds high importance as the task involves identification of new patterns that have not been detected earlier from the dataset. This is relatively a broad concept involving web mining, text mining, online mining etc.

What Data Mining is and what it is not?

The data mining is the process of extracting information, which has been collected, analyzed and prepared, from the dataset and identifying new patterns from that information. At this juncture, it is also important to understand what it is not. The concept is often misunderstood for knowledge gathering, processing, analysis and interpretation/ inference derivation. While these processes are absolutely not data mining, they are very much necessary for its successful implementation.

The 'First-mover Advantage'

One of the major goals of the data mining process is to identify an unknown or rather unexplored segment that had always existed in the business or industry, but was overlooked. The process, when done meticulously using appropriate techniques, could even make way for niche segments providing companies the first-mover advantage. In any industry, the first-mover would bag the maximum benefits and exploit resources besides setting standards for other players to follow. The whole process is thus considered to be a worthy approach to identify unknown segments.

The online knowledge collection and research is the concept involving many complications and, therefore, outsourcing the data mining services often proves viable for large companies that cannot devote time for the task. Outsourcing the web mining services or text mining services would save an organization's productive time which would otherwise be spent in researching.

The data mining algorithms and challenges

Every data mining task follows certain algorithms using statistical methods, cluster analysis or decision tree techniques. However, there is no single universally accepted technique that can be adopted for all. Rather, the process completely depends on the nature of the business, industry and its requirements. Thus, appropriate methods have to be chosen depending upon the business operations.

The whole process is a subset of knowledge discovery process and as such involves different challenges. Analysis and preparation of dataset is very crucial as the well-researched material could assist in extracting only the relevant yet unidentified information useful for the business. Hence, the analysis of the gathered material and preparation of dataset, which also considers industrial standards during the process, would consume more time and labor. Investment is another major challenge in the process as it involves huge cost on deploying professionals with adequate domain knowledge plus knowledge on statistical and technological aspects.

The importance of maintaining a comprehensive database prompted the need for data mining which, in turn, paved way for niche concepts. Though the concept has been present for years now, companies faced with ever growing competition have realized its importance only in the recent years. Besides being relevant, the dataset from where the information is actually extracted also has to be sufficient enough so as to pull out and identify a new dimension. Yet, a standardized approach would result in better understanding and implementation of the newly identified patterns.


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Data Mining As a Process

The data mining process is also known as knowledge discovery. It can be defined as the process of analyzing data from different perspectives and then summarizing the data into useful information in order to improve the revenue and cut the costs. The process enables categorization of data and the summary of the relationships is identified. When viewed in technical terms, the process can be defined as finding correlations or patterns in large relational databases. In this article, we look at how data mining works its innovations, the needed technological infrastructures and the tools such as phone validation.

Data mining is a relatively new term used in the data collection field. The process is very old but has evolved over the time. Companies have been able to use computers to shift over the large amounts of data for many years. The process has been used widely by the marketing firms in conducting market research. Through analysis, it is possible to define the regularity of customers shopping. How the items are bought. It is also possible to collect information needed for the establishment of revenue increase platform. Nowadays, what aides the process is the affordable and easy disk storage, computer processing power and applications developed.

Data extraction is commonly used by the companies that are after maintaining a stronger customer focus no matter where they are engaged. Most companies are engaged in retail, marketing, finance or communication. Through this process, it is possible to determine the different relationships between the varying factors. The varying factors include staffing, product positioning, pricing, social demographics, and market competition.

A data-mining program can be used. It is important note that the data mining applications vary in types. Some of the types include machine learning, statistical, and neural networks. The program is interested in any of the following four types of relationships: clusters (in this case the data is grouped in relation to the consumer preferences or logical relationships), classes (in this the data is stored and finds its use in the location of data in the per-determined groups), sequential patterns (in this case the data is used to estimate the behavioral patterns and patterns), and associations (data is used to identify associations).

In knowledge discovery, there are different levels of data analysis and they include genetic algorithms, artificial neural networks, nearest neighbor method, data visualization, decision trees, and rule induction. The level of analysis used depends on the data that is visualized and the output needed.

Nowadays, data extraction programs are readily available in different sizes from PC platforms, mainframe, and client/server. In the enterprise-wide uses, size ranges from the 10 GB to more than 11 TB. It is important to note that two crucial technological drivers are needed and are query complexity and, database size. When more data is needed to be processed and maintained, then a more powerful system is needed that can handle complex and greater queries.

With the emergence of professional data mining companies, the costs associated with process such as web data extraction, web scraping, web crawling and web data mining have greatly being made affordable.


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